Maine Democrats need to find some really lousy candidates for major offices. Otherwise, the Dems could end up helping to elect Republicans like Paul LePage to the U.S. Senate and Bruce Poliquin to the governorship in 2018.
Fortunately, the donkey party is loaded with lame contenders. But before I pick through that sludge pile, let me explain why Democrats need to field a slate of hopeless cases in the next election.
If Gov. LePage follows up on his threat to run against independent U.S. Sen. Angus King, the guv would be a clear underdog. LePage’s favorability rating has never nudged much above 40 percent, while King’s always sits comfortably in the mid-60s. In a two-person contest, LePage would lose in a landslide.
Of course, the 2018 contest won’t be limited to two people. The Green Independent Party may field a feeble candidate who’ll draw off 3 or 4 percentage points from King. The Libertarian Party might offer a Gary Johnson clone, who’ll take two votes from the sitting senator for every one he or she costs LePage. Add in a Democrat of unassailable mediocrity, and another 15 percent of King’s lead evaporates.
Suddenly, the race is a dead heat, and the enthusiasm of LePage’s deplorable supporters would give him a distinct edge over the laidback elitists who favor King.
Likewise in the next gubernatorial race. GOP U.S. Sen. Susan Collins is seriously considering a bid for the Blaine House, but doesn’t want to get bogged down in an ugly primary in which her refusal to support Donald Trump’s presidential bid becomes a major issue. To avoid that, Collins is said to be thinking of dropping her Republican affiliation to run as an independent.
If that happened, there’s little doubt Poliquin, currently the congressman from the state’s 2nd District, would seek the GOP nomination. In the primary, he’d be a clear frontrunner over state Senate President Mike Thibodeau, state Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason or Health and Human Services commissioner Mary Mayhew, all of whom have expressed interest in the office.
Of course, Collins would clobber Poliquin or any of the others in a nice, clean head-to-head fight. But, as with the Senate race, it won’t be that simple. The Greens and Libs could cloud the picture, and the Democrats, who haven’t won a Senate seat in Maine since shortly after the invention of the TV remote control, aren’t about to let such an opportunity slide by uncontested. What should be an easy win for Collins would suddenly become problematic, even if the Dem nominee drew something less than 20 percent of the vote.
Assuming the vast majority of Democrats would prefer to surrender these offices to Collins and King rather than risk them falling to Poliquin and LePage, the only solution is to offer up nominees so utterly unelectable as to guarantee they can’t play the spoiler. Those Dem voters will be pleased to learn their party’s bench is deep with candidates of surpassing shallowness.
Keeping in mind that Democrats need not just nominees who can’t win, but ones who can’t even contend, the party should immediately reject Attorney General Janet Mills, whose gubernatorial ambitions might attract support from middle-of-the-road independents. Mills’ candidacy would cut into the very bloc Collins must hold to beat Poliquin.
Instead, the Dems must turn to a proven nonstarter. While it would be tempting to consider unsuccessful 2014 nominee Mike Michaud, he’d likely be just strong enough to hand victory to the GOP. Better to go with losers waiting to be proven like House Speaker Mark Eves, Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap or soon-to-be-ex-state Rep. Diane Russell of Portland, all of whom have more ambition than common sense, and none of whom would attract enough supporters north of Augusta to fill the cast of an amateur production of “The Last Hurrah.”
For Senate, there’s Portland Mayor Ethan Strimling, perennial congressional candidate Emily Cain, Judge of Probate (and previous loser for governor and senator) Libby Mitchell, and anybody named Baldacci (except maybe the one who writes those thrillers).
And let’s not forget failed 2012 Senate nominee Cynthia Dill, who last I checked was writing a political column for a newspaper.
Can’t get much lamer than that.
Got a better (by which I mean worse) choice? Email me at aldiamon@herniahill.net.
I think they should rename the column to hard leaning democrat. The amount of liberal bias is kind of off putting. I wish you would be fair and equal to both sides.
I just want to get rid of LePage. We can worry when the next election comes, which I wish was now and not later. That buffoon governor is a joke. Probably this won’t get published, because I have no fears about openly speaking my mind about our dictator of a governor. But we don’t need to borrow trouble for the next election. We already have enough trouble LePage causes, anyway. He doesn’t want to follow the will of the voters, so therefore, he is a dictator. Sorry, Bulldog, but I speak my mind
Angel, Not sure if you’ve read some of Al’s columns but he is certainly not hard leaning liberal. I think he’s pretty critical of both dems and Republicans. He is pretty blunt and discusses things I don’t think the average politico wants to hear.
As a FORMER King supporter I really don’t care who opposes him, just make him past tense. LePage has shown us he can shake up the system, thou most of Bulldog followers including Al don’t approve. He’d fit right in with our new administration. An inspiring four years is on the horizon.
I hope that LePage does run against King. He will represent Maine very well.
“Collins is said to be thinking of dropping her Republican affiliation to run as an independent.” Why not, everybody knows she’s a RINO, a democrat in all but name. It’s a wonder she doesn’t caucus with the democrats already. Can’t understand what democrats have to lose if she wins, why field another candidate at all? Can’t understand what Republicans have to GAIN if she wins, which would be a hollow victory at best! Why not just finally come out of the political closet and run as a democrat, instead of living a lie?
Frumpy, the bulldog will allow you or anyone to bash LePage all you want. Just never say anything bad about a democrat leader. Oh wait a minute, there aren’t any…..
Le Page in the U.S. Senate? Right! All we need is another loudmouth bully in Washington.
is your title an homage to the late l. cohen?
Myopic — Yes.
Cheers,
Diamon
To insure this strategies success for the good fo the State I am sure Al you will volunteer to be the Sacrificial Goat.
If anything, it’s very “chuckly” to watch people’s skin crawl about the Gov..
Others have to endure the current prez and try and hold down our meals watching the hysterical and “hill”arious” Clinton crowd melt down.
Guess we’re all getting along just fine…
President-Elect Donald Trump;
Governor Paul LePage.
Those are FACTS decided by the voters.
It’s amazing to me that the democrats and political pundits and all Maine newspapers don’t have an iota of an idea what the people really think.
Jim: If Hillary had won, it soon wouldn’t have MATTERED what the people think! She would have loaded the Supreme Court with leftie activists, who might have “served” the leftie agenda for 40-50 years! If all Trump could do was keep Hillary out of the White House, that would have been enough! The other things he will do are bonuses!
Al, you seem to have missed the importance of the Ranked Choice Voting law that was just passed.
It minimizes, if not negates, the effect of vote-splitting.
In your scenario, votes that might otherwise go to Angus but end up going to a Democrat, Green, Libertarian, or other independent, would not guarantee a Republican win. It would merely mean that the first round of ballot counting would be more likely to have no winner, as the only way to win would be to get over 50% of the vote.
A second round of counting occurs where the lowest vote recipient are dropped. Voters who voted for a dropped candidate have their vote changed to their second preference. Essentially, an instant runoff, without having to reopen the polls, as voters have already said who they vote for if their initial choice is not in the runoff. If 50% is not achieved, another round of balloting with another candidate dropped occurs, repeating until a candidate does get 50% of the vote.
So, the Democrats don’t have to run an poor candidate to prevent a Republican win. They can run as good a candidate as they can get, and still have Angus as a second choice, if they aren’t good enough to win.
Good point, Shawn, but the winning candidate isn’t required to have 50% of the vote. At least that’s the way I interpret it.
Question 5: The official ballot summary was as follows:[1]
“ This initiated bill provides ranked-choice voting for the offices of United States Senator, United States Representative to Congress, Governor, State Senator and State Representative for elections held on or after January 1, 2018. Ranked-choice voting is a method of casting and tabulating votes in which voters rank candidates in order of preference, tabulation proceeds in rounds in which last-place candidates are defeated and the candidate with the most votes in the final round is elected.
[4]
”
Remember that LePage didn’t have 50% of the vote in 2010 or 2014.