Please note: This column has been updated and corrected from the version posted earlier to indicate the real source of the poll. Also, it has been corrected to remove the reference to Steven Biel as a member of Swing Hard. Run Fast. Turn Left. Biel is not a member of that group.
Interested in some oceanfront property in Millinocket?
Maybe a swanky condo in Misery Gore?
Or a poll that shows Democratic challenger Sara Gideon beating Republican U.S. Sen. Susan Collins by 9 percentage points?
My advice is go with the condo. Nice view of the pit where they mine the misery.
But this being a political column (sorta), I suppose we should focus on that poll. (If you’re really interested in property in Misery Gore, go to my other column, Real Estate Scams & Other Mistakes.)
There are many good reasons to be suspicious of this poll, not the least of which is that Ethan Strimling has something to do with it. Strimling, the former Portland mayor and state senator, now heads something called “Swing Hard. Run Fast. Turn Left,” a name he seems to have appropriated from a sportswear company. The purpose of this group (the word “group” is problematic, since it’s only member seems to be Strimling) is unclear, as it has no website and hasn’t registered as a political action committee. It does, however, share an email address and mailing lists with several political organizations run by Steven Biel, a close ally of Strimling’s.
What is known is that SHRFTL commissioned that Senate poll. Strimling, in his weekly Bangor Daily News column, describes it as “a joint left/right partnership.” The right part of that partnership is something called Victory Geek, which, according to Strimling is “a non-partisan data and telecom provider with mostly conservative clients.”
Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog, which rates virtually every polling firm in the country, doesn’t list Victory Geek. Three Maine political insiders I spoke with had never heard of it. The only online references I could find link it to Liberty Outdoor Media, not to be confused with the conglomerate that owns the Atlanta Braves baseball team, satellite broadcaster Sirius XM and numerous other enterprises. Liberty Outdoor is an Illinois billboard company that also offers self-storage and, oddly enough, political polling. Its total output seems to be three small surveys for local candidates in its home state. Until now.
Even without all that weirdness, the poll itself is still, well, weird. It shows Collins losing to Gideon 51% to 42% with just 7% undecided. The margin of error is 4.32%.
For an incumbent senator, those are disastrous figures, but it gets worse. Victory Geek claims Collins is trailing Gideon in the conservative 2nd District by 12 points. Collins had previously owned that territory, swamping all comers on her home turf. Gideon’s margin in northern Maine is all the odder, given that she leads Collins by just 7 points in the liberal 1st District.
Something wrong here.
First, the poll severely underrepresents independent voters, who comprise the largest bloc in the state at 37%. But independents account for only 26% of poll respondents. Collins has always done extremely well among voters who don’t belong to a political party. It also oversamples Democrats by a lot and Republicans by a little.
Victory Geek didn’t release detailed information on geographical samplings, but I’m guessing from what’s available that the pollsters may have surveyed considerably more residents of the 1st District than the 2nd. That could have added a bit of a liberal cushion to the final figures. That impression is reinforced by Victory Geek’s claim that Collins would also lose to Democratic also-ran Betsy Sweet by a single point (well within the poll’s margin of error), even though Sweet’s underfinanced campaign has garnered just 17% support in the Democratic primary portion of the poll. Sweet’s strength is mostly concentrated in southern Maine.
The Collins campaign released this statement on the Victory Geek poll: “The release of this poll was a coordinated hit job. The polling firm is unknown, and the party that commissioned it has a history of underhanded tactics. Legitimate news organizations should check the credentials of the polling company and the commissioning organization before publishing such an obvious piece of political propaganda.”
Strimling might consider renaming his latest enterprise “Swing Wildly. Run Randomly. Turn Any Way You Think Might Generate Publicity.”
If that doesn’t work, maybe he could try condo sales in Misery Gore.
Geeks, freaks and normal people can email me at aldiamon@herniahill.net.
Al:
Real Clear Politics has two recent polls showing Gideon beating Collins. Granted you could pick these apart as well. One has a similar underrepresentation of independents. However, this begs the question:
Where’s the recent poll showing Collins ahead?
The ex mayor of portland released another poll last week indicating he Strimiing would be the next Governor of Maine…. That poll was done by DBACSR… Any one ever hear of that firm?…. 10 bucks to the one that comes up with the info that tells us who that really is….
Luke,
Real Clear Politics?? Haha!!
Al isn’t that busy but it’s not even worth his time to pick them apart as well.. nothing but liberal spinsters.
Cmon Man!!
Gideon is gone.
Buckle up, Collins vote for Kavanaugh is still in the back of a lot of minds and may produce some strange results. Time will tell.
Similar to the CNN/MSDNC polls.
J.S. yes .. Sen. Collins vote is still somewhere in my mind… and I applaud her for voting the way she did.. She has done much more for us than any of the others that we have down there in DC..
Funny how the Collins folks weren’t screaming from the rafters when polls published last summer had her up 20, with similar percents of independent representation. Why? Because for those who don’t understand polling (ahem, Al), the question asking for party preference is not a demographic question (like age, race, gender, geography, which all must be weighted). It is a question of personal preference at that moment. That number shifts all the time as attitudes shift. (link below to help folks understand better).
Bottom line, the last three polls in the US Senate race show Collins trending down. If that weren’t the case, they would have released polls showing otherwise. But hey, if they want people to believe she is coasting to re-election, that works for me.
https://www.people-press.org/2012/08/03/party-affiliation-and-election-polls/
There’s also the fact that if Collins were not in the battle for her political life she would not be spending an arm and a leg on advertising FIVE MONTHS before the election. Though what form of sentience these TV ads (Gideon included) are designed to persuade is beyond me.
Maybe Al can conjure up the sources of the dark money that’s been flowing like wine into the bellies of our local TV broadcasters.
Also, RCP takes polls from all over. If you consider them “liberal spinsters” you might be getting your news only from Breitbart, Sinclair editorials, Hannity and company, OAN, or Trump’s own mouth. If so, you might want to get some air.
Al Diamon has never met me or talked to me. Just so you know, he literally wrote this knowing absolutely nothing about what he’s talking about. Shouldn’t there be editors or something in place to oversee basic journalistic standards? Is it really kosher to just say stuff about people you’ve made no effort to learn about?
For the record, Al’s statement here that I’m a “member” of Swing Hard. Run Fast. Turn Left. is simply false. Like, zero percent true. I have nothing whatsoever to do with it and read about the poll in the newspaper. It would be equally true to say I write a weekly column in the Daily Bulldog.
Luke …. where do you get your news?