Politics & Other Mistakes: Poor loser

6 mins read
Al Diamon
Al Diamon

Mark Holbrook has worse manners than Ted Cruz. (He refused to shake his opponent’s hand after a debate and mocked him online for being divorced and remarried.)

Holbrook is less electable than Carly Fiorina. (He’s a right-wing extremist running in a congressional district that skews strongly to the left.)

And Holbrook’s public persona makes Donald Trump look normal – almost. (He included a quote on his website claiming President Obama pitted “his Muslims against Christians.”)

Naturally, Republicans in Maine’s 1st District decided in the June primary that Holbrook of Brunswick would be the ideal candidate to take on Democratic U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree in November.

That’s because the state GOP seems incapable of grasping the concept known as “productive defeat.”
That term was probably invented years ago by some obscure political scientist, although it’s also possible I just made it up. Either way, it’s a useful tool for political parties seeking to build for the future. Here’s how it works:

Party X has no chance of winning a particular election. The seat is held by a popular incumbent. The demographics favor the opposition. The fundraising has been pathetic. The rest of Party X’s ticket has a better shot at victory, so it makes sense to direct resources where they will do the most good.

Even though that race is a certain loser, Party X’s candidate looks good on TV, works crowds like a pro and articulates positions clearly. That’s not going to be enough to win this election, but it could prove sufficient to set up the sacrificial lamb for future success. If Party X is willing to expend some effort on this race – enough to prevent a landslide loss – it might be rewarded with a solid nominee for something in the next election cycle.

Maine’s political landscape is cluttered with the results of productive defeats. Pingree got clobbered by Republican Susan Collins in the 2002 U.S. Senate race, but built on the name recognition and favorable media coverage from that campaign to win a congressional seat in 2008. Collins lost badly in her 1994 gubernatorial bid, but rebounded to take the 1996 Senate race. Republican Bruce Poliquin went nowhere in bids for governor (2010) and senator (2012), before finally figuring out how to disguise the fact he’s an obnoxious toad in his 2014 run for the 2nd Congressional District seat he now holds. Democrat Shenna Bellows lost to Collins in 2014, but demonstrated the campaign chops that make her the odds-on favorite to win a state Senate seat this year.

So what does this have to do with Holbrook? Other than his being, like Poliquin, an obnoxious toad?

Nothing, actually. Holbrook is going down to a non-productive defeat in November, awash in his rancid rhetoric excoriating Islam, immigrants, transsexuals and anybody even slightly to the left of Ben Carson. It’s likely he’ll never be heard from again, outside of crazed conservative social media.

But the missed opportunity for a productive defeat has a lot to do with the guy Holbrook beat in the GOP primary (pending a recount, which if it reverses the outcome, means there’s no point in reading the rest of this column) by a mere 55 votes out of over 20,000 ballots cast. Ande Smith of North Yarmouth came off as reasonable (although anybody not named LePage would look reasonable compared to Holbrook). If Smith had won, he’d likely have attracted enough general-election support to avoid embarrassing the GOP. He’d have been well positioned to run for something in 2018.

Unfortunately for his political career, Smith’s defeat by Holbrook wasn’t productive. Generally regarded as the frontrunner in that race, Smith raised more money and built a bigger campaign organization. He was an outsider, but not given to insane rants and wacko conspiracy theories like his opponent. His views were close enough to the mainstream to avoid scaring off moderates and liberals who make up the majority of voters in the 1st District.

But moderates and liberals don’t cast ballots in Republican primaries. Extremists, however, do. Despite GOP state chairman Rick Bennett’s claim that both primary candidates “have bright futures in Maine public life,” Smith’s failure to overcome the kooks will taint his reputation. Without serious revamping, he’s got nowhere to go.

Republicans wasted one here.

Get productive. Email me at aldiamon@herniahill.net.

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5 Comments

  1. Similar thing happened in the GOP primary for US President.
    Of all candidates, John Kasich probably stood a better chance of winning the general election. Many people would rather not vote for Clinton, but the alternative is unthinkable.
    Yes, I know, many people held of for Bernie, but that is beside the point.

  2. This is not the first time in our history the GOP has split into moderate and extremist factions. It happened in 1929 with the rise of Owen Brewster in Maine and Joe McCarthy in Washington. Maine historians used to agree that Republican Gov. Owen Brewster was the worst Governor in Maine history. Brewster rode to the Blaine House in 1929 on an anti-French Canadian immigrant platform with the full, open and active support of the Maine KKK. Now, six years into the administration of Paul LePage, opinion is split on the issue of who deserves to be designated the worst Governor in Maine history, Owen Brewster or Paul LePage.

    It was moderate Republican Margaret Chase Smith who who stood up, first to Brewster in Maine and then to McCarthy in Washington. She took the Maine GOP back from the extremists of her time. Now, history is repeating itself with LePage in Maine and Trump in Washington.

    It remains to be seen if history will continue to repeat itself, if someone like Margaret Chase Smith will rise up against the extremists and deliver their own ‘Declaration of Conscience’ speech. Or if, like so many of Mrs. Smith’s contemporaries, fear of losing an election or ending up in the cross-hairs of a hateful demagogue will continue to silence them.

    Please, if you are a Republican, take the time to read Margaret Chase Smith’s ‘Declaration of Conscience’ speech and think about how it applies to the situation the GOP finds itself in today. And then, find the courage she found to stand up, speak out and do something about it.

  3. clinton is an egregious violator of the principles of “Americanism” so declared. it is trump supporters who are incorrectly being labeled as facists and being attacked for speaking out. thanks for history anonymous.

  4. Trump and LePage are 2 peas in a pod — heaven help us if Trump becomes president. I think Trump is greedy and needy. He is greedy for power and needy for attention and that is juvenile.

  5. And I am guessing that you think the Clintons are not gready for power and attention… Do you watch anything other than Rev. Al and Rachel??

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